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*** Bumped to the top. Scroll for updates. ***
Here is the polling data for MI, which has McCain and Romney neck and neck.
Will Romney win his “home state,” as many are saying he needs to in order to have a chance at the nomination? Perhaps McCain’s “surge” will continue? Or will Huckabee steal the day? Keep in mind also that the Republican party punished Michigan by taking away half of their delegates as a result of them moving up their primary.
Also, how much effect, if any, will Dem saboteurs have on this primary?
Make yer predictions here, mateys!
Related: Romney to go back on TV today in SC, FL likely soon
Update 1 – 4:06 PM: Scott at Election Projection weighs in with his predictions here. I think Romney will win in a squeaker.
The Detroit Free Press is reporting low turnout so far (via OTB).
Update 2 – 6:38: The Associated Press is reporting on exit polls:
On Tuesday there were both Democratic and Republican primaries and though ballot maneuvering left the Democratic side in essence non-competitive, apparently it kept some Democrats from migrating to the Republican contest — where they made up fewer than one in 10 voters. In 2000, Republicans made up only 48 percent of the GOP primary electorate; Tuesday they were two-thirds of it. A quarter of Republican primary voters Tuesday called themselves independent, down from 35 percent eight years ago.
In all, the exit poll indicated seven in 10 voters Tuesday opted to vote in the Republican primary. Among those who did vote on the Democratic side, more than three in four called themselves Democrats.
IT’S THE ECONOMY … AT LEAST IN MICHIGAN
Given four choices, half of Michigan Republican primary voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation — compared to just 26 percent in the Iowa GOP caucuses and 31 percent in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Its auto industry ailing, Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Among the other choices, one in five picked Iraq, one in seven said immigration and one in 10 called terrorism the country’s most important issue.
On a different question, only three in 10 Michigan GOP voters rated the nation’s economy excellent or good, compared to half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.
ON OTHER ISSUES …
Among Michigan Republican primary voters:
_ six in 10 say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases
_ a similar number approve of the war in Iraq
_ a little more than half say it should be higher priority for the next president to reduce the budget deficit rather than cut taxes
Drudge is reporting: EXIT POLLS SHOW: Romney 34, McCain 29, Huckabee 16…
Polls close at 8 pm ET.
Charlotte’s next door neighbors at the Gaston Gazette will have live results. I don’t know if that one will auto-refresh, tho. I’ll keep searching for other live results sites.
Update 3 – 6:49 PM: Politico will have the results up as they happen later …. no direct link to the results page just yet.
Update 4 – 7:41: The Boston Globe also reports that early exit polls are looking good for Romney, and bad for McCain, as it looks like Independents didn’t turn out for this year’s Republican primary like they did in 2000.
Here’s Fox News’ Meghan Kelly on the exit polls.
Update 5 – 8:06: The polls are now closed in MI. If the results are anything like the exit poll predictions, it’ll be an early night for us all. Here’s another site that will have results, and it auto-refreshes. There’s still no direct link to Politico’s primary results page.
Update 6 – 8:10: The results are starting to come in, and the Gaston Gazette has ‘em. Keep refreshing that page for updates.
Here’s ABC’s MI primary page. CNN’s got a better one here.
Update 7 – 9:05: With 10% reporting, CNN is calling it already for Romney.
Update 8 – 10:14: Here’s an interesting tidbit of info: Romney edged out Huckabee on evangelicals 32% to 31%.
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Brian should have published this sooner.
PCD – will you try reposting your link? It didn’t take the first time.
Sorry, Donald posted this
Still, this is a gem from Liberty Pundit.
Why are the Dems “saboteurs”? If the rules say the primary’s open, then the primary’s open. Blame the rules-makers, not the people who show up to vote.
Anyway, if the crossovers do cross over, I would suppose that McCain wins; if they don’t, it’s Romney. But who knows?
The people mentioned in that link (far left KosKidz) are saboteurs because they’re aiming to vote for someone they have no intention of voting for in the general. They have no intention of making the MI primary about who the best candidate is for the Republican party but instead what Republican candidate will be best for the Democratic party. IMO, it puts the integrity of the election in question. They certainly have the “right” to do this, but as I’ve said before, just because one has the “right” to do something doesn’t make it right.
I feel the same way about either of the two major parties when they try to help out a third party candidate in a race where they think the third party will help them. It’s BS and it’s wrong. Whatever happened to winning primaries and elections solely on the strength of a particular candidate without having to resort to underhanded ways of “helping” them win?
It appears that the turnout in MI is going to be very sparse indeed. It’ll be interesting to watch the media spin the results on this weak event for their favorite candidates…
Leslie, It’s about honesty. The Dem voters voting for McCain don’t honestly want him as president. If you are saying they are honest then you are kidding YOURSELF!
Nowhere in the rules does it say your tongue will be cut off for lying. So let’s not blame the liars… let’s blame the rule makers? You are funny.
Anyways, GO FRED !!! Come in second or third again please ! Fredmentum !!
The democrats removed all the delegates from their side, which just invited the kind of crap kos is advocating, and it disenfranchises the democrat voters in MI.
But, hey, if the democrats want their rules to reflect thier own version of disenfranchisement, so be it….
The roads are a mess and it’s freezing. I bet low turnout and it might mean Romney wins.
Romney is being a classic politician and just telling the people what they want to hear. McCain is at least telling the truth that the jobs aren’t coming back and something needs to be done to re-train workers and re-orient the state’s economy.
Romney is making promises he’ll never be able to keep and demonstrating everything that is wrong with political campaigns today.
Fred in statistical second place tie in SC !
As far as I’m concerned… I don’t know one voter here in CA that wants John McCain. Where is the 28% for McCain? Is it manufactured by the pollsters?
That leaves Romney and Thompson in SC. Either one would be fine with me.
Neil wrote:
That is an opinion. There’s a good basis for both opinions by Romney and McCain. The solution is not McCain’s government retraining program however.
So while McCain offers no hope and a bad solution. Romney offers hope and the better solution.
Results of polices can be learned from history. So these statements of mine are better informed opinions (based on history) than your Neil. To ignore history is to ignore policies that other states have used to lure auto plants from all manufacturers including Ford, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda, etc. More cars are being sold today than 10 years ago. More cars are being manufactured in the U.S. than 10 or 20 years ago. Sure there is a good percentage made in other countries and sure there are parts being made in other countries and then only assembled here but to offer no hope and the wrong plan for the future isn’t the wisest choice for a pres candidate.
Additionally, people can learn new skills and should learn new skills always. I do myself. I update my skills every year for over 19 years in the computer field. You can’t continue to expect that you will have the job of attaching a headlamp to a fixture for 30 years. You have to advance and adapt. You have to have a union that allows a company to grow and have innovative ideas. You have to allow a company to prosper.
Companies and individuals are who need to move forward in a capitalist system.
Capitalism defined is – the people choosing who gets what resources.
When the government chooses who gets what resources that is socialism defined. Prosperity isn’t had that way.
McCain doesn’t have the solution. The solution probably isn’t one the government can or should provide. But at least he’s being honest.
Romney isn’t offering any solutions. He’s simply creating a fairytale about going back to who things were 50 years ago. It’s a promise he shouldn’t be making. Of course, that’s what politicians do.
Neil, I didn’t know you were in MI right now. When will you be headed back overseas?
Then let him run for Governor of Michigan. MI’s solution is getting rid of the idiots who are running it, not more government programs. – Lorica
I’m staying in MI – same company and working on new business awarded in the US.
Well said, Lorica. Michigan voters wanted a state government that was hostile to business and jobs and would do everything in its power to drive away employers. They got exactly what they voted for. It’s not the federal government’s role to undo the freely expressed choice of the Michigan electorate.
The lesson seems to be lost on the economic illiterates who vote here in New Jersey, unfortunately.
Brit Hume said it best. The winners can’t repeat!
My prediction?
Fred Thompson in South Carolina!
Fredmentum!!!
I am no supporter of Romney, but I was glad to see him beat McCain. Even if he gets the nomination, a string of defeats might shake McCain up a little and remind him that Washington is not a vast source of wisdom.
On the Democrat side – right now Hillary has 55% with 97% counted. That has to either be a wash or a small defeat for her.
Me to Mwalimu. My top 3 candidates are Fred, Romney and then Guliani. It would be a shame to see anyone else win because they would lose. But even still I’d vote for McCain or Huckabee in the general election.
On Hillary’s numbers… she’s toast. Without Obama in the race she really got dismal numbers.
ST moves over to the theoretical, while discussing crossover voters in primaries.
I never said it was right. But this is the way it is. Leave the henhouse door open, and foxes will arrive.
—
Baklava, also wandering around in the theoretical, intones:
Now where on earth did I say the Democratic McCain voters honestly wanted him as president?
Huh? What? There are rules for perjury, y’know. We don’t cut off tongues, but we do put people in jail. Just ask Marion Jones, disgraced professional track star.
Yes, quite.
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Comte, however, with eyes fixed firmly on the here-and-now, points out:
Exactly right.
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And anyway, it didn’t work. Game over. Romney wins! Romney wins!
Thankfully…
The one state recession, Michigan, Governor Granholm endorses Hillary Clinton….
Well, Clinton is right, there needs to be a change in Michigan, the only state in recession, and the one in charge of it all is Governor Granhom – who supports Hillary.
Weel, seeing how well her decisions have done for Michigan, I think that is more of a death sentence than an endorsement.
Besides, the majority of Democrats in Michigan seem to be in favor of Obama.
Reminds me of he movie Brewster’s Millions, where he runs a campiagn for mayor – he doesn’t want to be mayor, everyone in this campaign are crooks…vote for NONE OF THE ABOVE.
He won.