Comments on: Poll numbers and the fine print

By: Lorica

Lorica — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 17:13:42 +0000

NC evil has a way of exposing itself. I feel the same way about Barry. – Lorica

By: NC Cop

NC Cop — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:58:56 +0000

I know what you mean, Denise. Barry O wouldn’t be anywhere near as popular if it wasn’t for our one party media. They’ve been pandering to him since before the primaries and as I have said before, most people don’t have the time to research articles and fact check things the media tell them. They actually believe what the media says. Indeed, a sad state of affairs. I’m hoping that enough people so Obama for what he is and not what he, or the media, claims to be.

By: Polling data, too. | BitsBlog

Polling data, too. | BitsBlog — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:05:23 +0000

[...] at least a certain amount of fraud going on with the pollsters, as well.Â Â Fellow Swamp Stomper, Sister Toldjah This morning, I logged in to see that a WaPo/ABC pollhas Obama up by 9 points over Mc and a large [...]

By: Anthony (Los Angeles)

Anthony (Los Angeles) — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:35:52 +0000

I think politics junkies like us would do ourselves a lot of good (and save on Rolaids) by not checking the polls every day: they’re too tied to the latest wind (Same with not checking our portfolios daily. ) It’s the trends over time that matter, but more important are the fundamentals: character and policy. both of these are on McCain’s side.

I seem to recall in 2004 a lot of nerves over how the election would go, yet I was sure on election day that Bush would win: America is a center-right nation, and at its core is very uncomfortable with dyed-in-the-wool Great Society northern liberals — which is what Obama is, much more so than John “Christmas in Cambodia” Kerry.

I get that same feeling here: Obama is such a weak candidate that, even with the rough week Maverick has had, the nation will still follow their gut and go with the team more aligned with their basic instincts.

Now, of course, McCain-Palin could blow it, or Obama-Biden could have a surge of brilliance (after all, Joe has a higher IQ than the rest of us ), but I doubt it. In fact, I’ll bet my hat on a McCain win in November.

By: alchemist

alchemist — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:25:39 +0000

I've been watching the state numbers at RCP too... I find it fascinating that numbers can change so much from poll to poll in places like NC (there's also problems with states that are still buffered from months old polls). Alot of the problems are the small sample size, which can dramatically affect the odds of getting a heavy D or heavy R polling. This also happens most heavily in the national poll, when you get samples of fewer than 1,000 people you also see the most disparate results. So at RCP, I generally don't trust the Obama +9 or the McCain +2. I think the Obama +1 or +2 is probably closer to accurate. And that will probably change a lot after the first debate.

By: Denise

Denise — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:14:31 +0000

I am really starting to feel sick. I know things can change in 6 weeks but my heart wonders how so many people can be taken in by the empty suit.